The best investments are based on fear.

When I was completing my Marketing degree one of the things that stuck was the three main appeals of advertising; Sex, Humour and Fear. Each of these appeals can generate a response from people and hopefully engage the consumer in desiring your product.
While I love humour, and I'm tired of seeing sex used as an advertising strategy, I would never base an investment decision on either of them. Fear, on the other hand, is a great indicator of a possible success when it comes to investing.
Take this post for example,
Identity Theft and Security Lead to Surge in Sale of Shredders. The biggest biochemical stock prices have soared after news that the avian bird flu may become a pandemic. Even free-range chickens are now commanding premium prices, as people are concerned about hormone inducing technologies. These are just the tip of the iceberg.
As most investors will tell you, the best time to buy a stock is when its discounted from it's real value. The real value of a stock can only be achieved by people's perception of what that stock is worth. The same applies with products, which obviously flows through to stock prices.
If you want to buy stock at a discounted price you need to anticipate the mood of consumers. What are they frightened of? What is driving them to make irrational decisions about their future based on their insecurities?
Please don't misunderstand me. I am not advocating predating on people's fears. Merely trying to predict what people are going to become fearful of and will throw money after in order to feel secure again. Reading this market well will always result in success because consumers are willing to pay premiums for security.
Why do you think products like mangosteen (aka Xango Juice) and Hoodia are becoming so popular? It's because people fear dying and bad health. They will gladly pay exorbitant amounts of money and eat or drink products that taste disgusting in the hope that their fears may be allayed.
If you are looking for an investment that will take off start by finding a problem that's linked to people's security; home security, security of personal belongings, identity, health and well being. Then follow the logical progression. I the case mentioned before, the problem was identity theft. The solution is shredding personal details so that consumers don't become victims at the hands of some negligent employee. If shredders are the solution, then invest in a company that produces shredders. Their stock is about to boom.


Comments
Keep up the great work on your blog. Best wishes WaltDe
Posted by: WaltDe | September 1, 2006 4:53 PM